Stocks fall on U.S.-Iran war uncertainty, though losses kept in check: Live updates
Source: CNBC
U.S. stock markets fell modestly on Monday as tensions between the United States and Iran escalated over the weekend. The S&P 500 dropped 0.24% to close at 7,109.14, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.26% to 24,404.39, snapping its 13-day winning streak — the longest positive run since 1992. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped just 4.87 points. Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, losses remained relatively contained, suggesting markets had already priced in much of the risk.
In contrast to the broader market's decline, the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.58% to 2,792.96, setting a new all-time closing record. Software stocks also performed well, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF gaining more than 1%. Analysts noted that traders remain reluctant to fully price in a worst-case scenario, given that equities have already recovered from near-correction territory to reach historic highs in recent weeks.
The tensions were triggered after President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. had seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. The vessel was described as being under U.S. Treasury sanctions due to prior illegal activity. Trump also threatened to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges if the country refused to reach a deal with Washington. A ceasefire between the two nations is set to expire this week, adding further urgency to negotiations.
Oil prices surged sharply in response to the escalating conflict. West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped 6.87% to close at $89.61 per barrel, while international Brent crude advanced 5.64% to $95.48 per barrel. The spike came amid renewed restrictions on vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping lane. Iran's state media claimed the U.S. had failed to fulfill obligations that were part of the earlier ceasefire agreement.
Despite the geopolitical headwinds, at least one prominent market analyst remains bullish on equities. David Wagner of Aptus Capital Advisors told CNBC that he sees solid prospects for equity market returns in the near term. He argued that strong earnings growth and potential valuation expansion provide meaningful support for stocks going forward. Wagner dismissed concerns that the market was overvalued, instead pointing to the earnings story of S&P 500 companies as a source of continued upward momentum.
Japanese translation
米国とイランの間の緊張が週末にかけて高まったことを受け、月曜日の米国株式市場は小幅な下落となった。S&P500指数は0.24%安の7,109.14で引け、ナスダック総合指数も0.26%下落して24,404.39となり、1992年以来最長となる13日間の連続上昇記録に終止符を打った。ダウ平均株価はわずか4.87ドルの下落にとどまり、地政学的な不透明感にもかかわらず全体的な損失は限定的だった。
一方、小型株で構成されるラッセル2000指数は0.58%上昇して2,792.96と、終値での史上最高値を更新した。ソフトウェア株も堅調で、iShares拡張テクノロジー・ソフトウェアセクターETFは1%超の上昇を見せた。アナリストらは、株価がすでに直近の調整局面から史上最高値圏まで回復していることもあり、最悪シナリオを完全には織り込もうとしない投資家心理が続いていると指摘した。
緊張の引き金となったのは、トランプ大統領が日曜日にオマーン湾でイラン船籍の貨物船を拿捕したと発表したことだ。同船は過去の違法行為を理由に米財務省の制裁対象となっていたという。トランプ氏はさらに、イランが合意に応じなければ同国の発電所や橋を破壊すると脅した。両国間の停戦は今週期限を迎えるとされており、交渉の緊迫度が一段と増している。
紛争の激化を受け、原油価格は急騰した。WTI原油先物は6.87%高の1バレル89.61ドルで引け、国際指標のブレント原油も5.64%上昇して95.48ドルとなった。価格上昇の背景には、世界の重要な海上輸送路であるホルムズ海峡での船舶通行制限の再開がある。イランの国営メディアは、米国が以前の停戦合意で定められた義務を果たしていないと主張した。
こうした地政学的な逆風にもかかわらず、著名な市場アナリストの一人は株式市場に強気の見方を維持している。アプタス・キャピタル・アドバイザーズのデービッド・ワグナー氏はCNBCに対し、近い将来の株式市場の収益見通しは良好だと述べた。同氏はS&P500企業の堅調な業績成長とバリュエーション拡大の可能性が株価を下支えすると主張し、市場の割高懸念を否定した。
Key vocabulary
- snap a winning streakphrase
To bring an unbroken series of victories or gains to an end, often abruptly.
和訳: 連勝(連続上昇)記録を止める
The team snapped their 10-game winning streak after a surprising defeat at home.
- price inphrase
To incorporate a particular risk, event, or expectation into the current market value of an asset.
和訳: (リスクや情報を)価格に織り込む
Investors had already priced in the possibility of an interest rate hike before the announcement was made.
- correction territorynoun
A market condition in which asset prices fall 10% or more from a recent peak, signaling a significant pullback.
和訳: 調整局面(相場の修正圏)
After weeks of declines, analysts warned that the index was entering correction territory.
- ceasefirenoun
A temporary or permanent halt to fighting between opposing parties, agreed upon by both sides.
和訳: 停戦
The two nations agreed to a ceasefire following intense diplomatic pressure from international mediators.
- sanctionsnoun
Official penalties or restrictions imposed by one country on another to compel a change in policy or behavior.
和訳: 制裁(措置)
The government imposed economic sanctions on the regime in response to human rights violations.
- valuation expansionnoun
An increase in the price investors are willing to pay for each unit of a company's earnings, often reflecting growing optimism about future growth.
和訳: バリュエーションの拡大(株価収益率の上昇)
Technology stocks benefited from valuation expansion as interest rates fell and growth expectations rose.
- geopolitical headwindsphrase
International political tensions or conflicts that create negative pressure on economic activity or financial markets.
和訳: 地政学的な逆風
The company's overseas expansion plans faced significant geopolitical headwinds amid rising trade disputes.
- bullishadjective
Optimistic about the future performance of financial markets or a particular asset, expecting prices to rise.
和訳: 強気の(市場上昇を見込む)
Several fund managers remain bullish on emerging market equities despite the recent volatility.














